Les Gagnants (Relatifs) de la Nouvelle Economie Mondiale

CAMBRIDGE - L'économie mondiale fait face à une incertitude considérable à court terme. La zone euro parviendra-t-elle à régler ses problèmes et éviter l’effondrement ? Les Etats-Unis pourront-ils retrouver le chemin d’une croissance renouvelée? Est-ce que la Chine trouvera un moyen d’infléchir le ralentissement économique qui s’est emparé d’elle ?

Les réponses à ces questions détermineront l’évolution de l'économie mondiale au cours des prochaines années. Mais, quelle que soit la façon dont ces défis immédiats sont résolus, il est clair que l'économie mondiale est entrée dans une nouvelle phase également difficile à plus long terme – une phase qui sera nettement moins favorable à la croissance économique que potentiellement toute autre période depuis la fin de la seconde guerre mondiale.

Indépendamment de la manière dont ils gèrent leurs difficultés actuelles, l'Europe et l'Amérique s’en sortiront avec une dette élevée, un taux de croissance faible et des contentieux de politique intérieure. Même dans le meilleur des cas, si l'euro reste intact, l'Europe restera embourbée dans la lourde tâche de reconstruire son union effilochée. Et, aux États-Unis, la polarisation idéologique entre démocrates et républicains continuera à paralyser la politique économique.

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