新全球经济的(相对)赢家

剑桥讯——短期内,世界经济将面临极大的不确定性。欧元区是否能够理清自己的问题,避免出现分裂的结局?美国能否走上一条增长恢复之路?中国能不能找到扭转经济增长放缓的方法?

这些问题的答案将影响全球经济在未来几年内的发展。但是无论眼前的这些挑战如何解决,可以肯定,世界经济正在进入新一轮的长期困难阶段——这可能是二战结束以来最不利于经济增长的一段时期。

无论欧洲和美国如何解决它们当前的困境,它们注定会陷入高负债、低增长率和国内政治争议不休的境地。即使是在欧元保持无损的最好的情况下,欧洲也会因重建受损联盟这一艰巨的任务而停滞不前。而在美国,民主党和共和党之间的意识形态分化也将继续阻碍经济政策的制订。

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