El nuevo sendero de China

CAMBRIDGE – La naturaleza opaca del gobierno de China no permite ver con claridad hacia dónde se dirige la política económica china y, por ende, cómo se desarrollará la economía china en los próximos años. Pero la escala de la economía de China y su papel en el comercio y los mercados financieros globales nos obliga a intentar entender las intenciones del nuevo liderazgo de China.

Un punto de partida útil es analizar los nombramientos clave que se han hecho desde que el presidente Xi Jinping asumió el cargo. Una sorpresa fue la decisión de retener a Zhou Xiaochuan en el puesto de gobernador del Banco Popular de China (PBOC por su sigla en inglés). El mandato de Zhou ya había llegado a su fin -y él mismo había alcanzado una edad en la que los funcionarios supuestamente se retiran-. De modo que la decisión de mantenerlo en el cargo durante por lo menos los próximos dos años representa un respaldo  importante por parte del nuevo liderazgo chino.

Zhou es un experto inteligente e internacionalmente respetado en política monetaria y finanzas. Al frente del PBOC, ha favorecido políticas monetarias más centradas en el mercado y una mayor internacionalización de la moneda de China, el renminbi. También ha trabajado con éxito para contener las presiones inflacionarias. Podemos esperar más de lo mismo en los próximos años.

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