Chinas neuer Weg

CAMBRIDGE – Aufgrund der undurchschaubaren Natur der chinesischen Regierung fällt es schwer zu beurteilen, in welche Richtung sich die chinesische Wirtschaftspolitik bewegt und wie sich die chinesische Wirtschaft daher in den kommenden Jahren entwickeln wird. Doch die Größenordnung der  Wirtschaft Chinas und ihre Rolle im globalen Handel und auf den weltweiten Finanzmärkten zwingen uns, einen Versuch zu unternehmen, die Absichten der neuen chinesischen Führung zu verstehen.

Ein praktischer Ausgangspunkt dafür ist die nähere Betrachtung der wichtigsten Personalentscheidungen seit der Amtsübernahme durch Präsident Xi Jinping. Überraschend war die Entscheidung, Zhou Xiaochuan in seinem Amt als Gouverneur der Zentralbank People’s Bank of China (PBOC) zu belassen. Zhou hatte das Ende seiner Amtszeit und obendrein ein Alter erreicht, in dem hohe Beamte normalerweise in Rente gehen.  Daher ist die Entscheidung, ihn zumindest für die nächsten zwei Jahre in seinem Amt zu bestätigten, als bedeutende Rückenstärkung durch die neue chinesische Führung zu werten.

Zhou ist ein intelligenter und international anerkannter Experte für Geldpolitik und Finanzen. Als Chef der PBOC hat er sich für eine stärker marktorientierte Geldpolitik sowie für die zunehmende Internationalisierung der chinesischen Währung – des Renminbi – eingesetzt. Überdies gelang es ihm, den inflationären Druck einzudämmen. In den nächsten Jahren ist mit einer Fortsetzung dieser Politik zu rechnen.

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