中国的新路径

发自剑桥——中国政府的不透明本质使外界难以摸清中国经济政策的走向,从而也很难揣摩中国经济在未来几年将如何发展。但中国经济的巨大规模及其在全球贸易和金融市场中所扮演的角色迫使我们设法去理解中国新领导班子的意图。

我们可以通过分析自习近平就职后做出的一系列重要任命来推测。其中出人意表的一个决定是让周小川继续留任中国人民银行行长。周的上一任任期已经结束——同时也到了官员应该退休的年龄。因此让他至少再留任两年的决定代表着中国新领导人对其的高度认可。

周是一位睿智且国际知名的货币政策和金融专家。作为中国人民银行行长,他一直比较青睐基于市场的货币政策和并使本国货币——人民币——越来越国际化。他同时还成功遏制了通胀压力。而在未来几年我们即将看到更多类似的举措。

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