金融资本主义的新魔怪

次级房贷危机把人们的注意力从日益担忧的、对被称为国际金融魔怪的国家财富基金上转移开来。但是,一旦次级房贷危机消退,对于国家财富基金的忧虑就会卷土重来。这是因为,与人们所希望的由次级房贷危机所产生的短暂不安相比,国家控制基金大量涌现所产生的影响可能更为深远,而且在政治上更为敏感。

确实,如果国家财富基金继续增加其投资,就必将永久性地改变发达经济体中国家和私人控制资产的相对份量。根据摩根斯坦利公司的估计,预计到2015年,国家财富基金管理的资产将会从现在的大约2.5兆美元上升到12兆美元。这使得对冲基金和私人直接投资公司控制的金钱相形见绌。因此,未来几年中金融市场的某些最大的投资者,无论是被动还是战略投资者都将会是政府机构。这些最大的机构将来自中国、普京统治的俄国以及某些不稳定的石油生产国,这就会给这一组合增添担忧因素。

亚洲的新兴市场经济体以及石油和原料出口国的超过5兆美元的外汇储备的直接后果就是国家财富基金的增长。这些经济体经常项目盈余以及大量的资本流入让它们的货币财政机关试图防止其货币升值,以便维持其产业的竞争力。

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