Encore des bulles, toujours des bulles…

NEW HAVEN – On pourrait croire que nous vivons dans une ère post-bulle depuis l'effondrement en 2006 de la bulle immobilière la plus importante jamais connue au monde et depuis la fin d'une grande bulle mondiale du marché boursier l'année suivante. Mais les discussions sur les bulles ne cessent de réapparaître : des bulles immobilières nouvelles ou continues dans de nombreux pays, une nouvelle bulle boursière mondiale, une bulle du marché obligataire à long terme aux États-Unis et dans d'autres pays, une bulle des prix du pétrole, une bulle de l'or, etc.

Néanmoins je ne m'attendais pas à entendre une histoire de bulle lors de mon voyage en Colombie le mois dernier. Mais encore une fois, les gens de ce pays m'ont parlé d'une bulle immobilière en cours et mon chauffeur m'a fait visiter la station balnéaire de Cartagena, en soulignant sur un ton étonné, que plusieurs maisons s'étaient récemment vendues pour plusieurs millions de dollars.

La Banco de la República, la banque centrale de Colombie, maintient un indice des prix nationaux sur les trois principales villes : Bogotá, Medellín et Cali. L'indice a augmenté de 69% en termes constants (indexés sur l'inflation) depuis 2004, le plus fort de l'augmentation ayant eu lieu après 2007. Ce taux de croissance des prix rappelle l'expérience américaine, lorsque l'indice des prix nationaux S&P/Case-Shiller Ten-City des Etats-Unis a augmenté de 131% en termes constants depuis son creux en 1997 jusqu'à son pic en 2006.

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