永远的泡沫

纽黑文—在2006年史上最大全球房地产泡沫破灭、2007年世界股市大泡沫结束之后,你大概以为我们已经进入了后泡沫时代。但关于泡沫的讨论仍没有淡出视野——许多国家的房地产市场仍有泡沫或出现了新的泡沫;新的全球股市泡沫;美国和其他国家长期债券市场泡沫;石油价格泡沫;黄金泡沫,等等。

尽管如此,当我上个月访问哥伦比亚时,并没有预期会看到泡沫。但是,人们再一次和我谈到了进行中的房地产泡沫,我的司机指向海滨度假小镇卡塔赫纳(Cartagena),带着惊愕的口气说,有的房子最近卖到了数百万美元。

哥伦比亚央行有一个追踪三大城市——波哥大、麦德林和卡利的住房价格指数。自2004年以来,该指数实际值(经通胀调整)上涨了69%,其中大部分涨幅发生在2007年之后。房价上升之快令人想起了美国,标普/凯斯-希勒(S&P/Case-Shiller)十城市住房价格指数从1997年的底部到2006年的顶部总共上涨了131%。

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