El giro a Asia y la cuestión nuclear

WASHINGTON, DC – En 2009, el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Barack Obama, se comprometió con la búsqueda de un mundo sin armas nucleares. Un año después, cumplió su promesa de negociar un Nuevo Tratado de Reducción de Armas Estratégicas con Rusia, pero desde entonces no hubo nuevos avances. Para salir de este impasse, es necesario que el actual marco bilateral de negociación (que casi no ha cambiado desde la Guerra Fría) se convierta en trilateral, con la inclusión de China.

No hay duda de que ese cambio complicará en gran medida las negociaciones. Al fin y al cabo, varias décadas de diálogo bilateral permitieron a Estados Unidos y Rusia hacerse una idea bastante clara de las perspectivas estratégicas de la otra parte (y también de sus divergencias de opinión), pero el punto de vista chino sobre la estabilidad estratégica no está tan claro. Aun así, la hábil diplomacia estadounidense puede actuar como catalizador de nuevos diálogos trilaterales que tal vez también sirvan para trabajar sobre las relaciones estratégicas entre los países, actualmente caracterizadas por las contradicciones y la desconfianza.

Rusia pretende que China la apoye en su postura contraria a los sistemas estadounidenses de defensa antimisilística y, además, considera que las futuras conversaciones sobre control de armas estratégicas deben incluir a todos los estados con capacidad nuclear. Pero acto seguido, utiliza sus inquietudes sobre la modernización militar de China como justificación de su negativa a negociar con la OTAN sobre reducción de armas nucleares tácticas. China nunca adoptó un compromiso vinculante de limitar su armamento nuclear o sus vectores nucleares estratégicos, y rechaza el llamado de Rusia a negociaciones conjuntas; Estados Unidos apoya esta postura en tanto los arsenales ruso y estadounidense no se reduzcan hasta un tamaño más similar al de China.

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