Die asiatische Achse nuklearer Abrüstung

WASHINGTON, DC – Im Jahr 2009 hat US-Präsident versprochen, sich um eine Welt ohne Nuklearwaffen zu bemühen. Zwar hat er hat ein Jahr später sein Versprechen gehalten, mit Russland ein Abkommen zur Reduzierung strategischer Waffen zu treffen, aber seitdem sind die Fortschritte zum Erliegen gekommen. Um die Blockade zu lösen, müssen die bilateralen Verhandlungen, die sich seit dem Kalten Krieg kaum verändert haben, auf einen trilateralen Rahmen ausgeweitet werden, der China mit einschließt.

Solch eine Veränderung würde jedoch die Verhandlungen deutlich verkomplizieren. Nach Jahrzehnten bilateralen Dialogs haben die Vereinigten Staaten und Russland ein gutes Gefühl für die gegenseitigen strategischen Sichtweisen – einschließlich der Konfliktthemen. Chinas Ansichten über strategische Stabilität dagegen sind unvertraut. Aber trilaterale Dialoge mithilfe geschickter US-Diplomatie könnten auch eine Gelegenheit darstellen, die strategischen Beziehungen der Länder zu verbessern, die momentan durch Widersprüche und Misstrauen gekennzeichnet sind.

Russland sucht in seiner Ablehnung amerikanischer Raketenabwehrsysteme Chinas Unterstützung und verlangt für zukünftige Gespräche über die Kontrolle strategischer Waffen die Teilnahme aller Nuklearstaaten, äußert aber Bedenken über die militärische Modernisierung Chinas, um damit seine Weigerung zu rechtfertigen, mit der NATO über die Reduzierung taktischer Atomwaffen zu verhandeln. China akzeptiert keine rechtlich bindenden Grenzen für Atomwaffen oder strategische Trägersysteme und lehnt Russlands Aufforderung zu Verhandlungen ab – ein Standpunkt, den die USA unterstützen, bis die russischen und US-amerikanischen Nukleararsenale sich größenmäßig an diejenigen Chinas annähern.

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