核裁军的亚洲支点

华盛顿——2009年,美国总统奥巴马承诺建设一个没有核武器的世界。一年后尽管他兑现了与俄国谈判新战略武器削减条约的承诺,但这方面的进展仍然陷于停顿。要想打破现有僵局,冷战结束后基本保持不变的双边谈判框架必须转化为三边框架,并邀请中国参与。

这样的举措无疑会让谈判形势复杂化。毕竟几十年的双边对话已经让美俄双方非常熟悉对方的战略诉求,其中也包括双方的分歧。但中国对战略稳定的看法却是全新的课题。尽管存在困难,但在美国外交的巧妙推动下,三边对话也可以成为管理目前充满矛盾和不信任的国家战略关系的一次难得的机遇。

俄国需要中国支持对抗美国导弹防御系统,并呼吁未来的战略武器控制谈判要让一切有核国家参与。但俄国又把中国军事现代化当作挡箭牌来拒绝与北约进行削减战术核武器谈判。而中国则从未承诺对其核武器或战略运载工具进行任何有约束力的限制,并且拒绝响应俄国加入谈判的呼吁——中国的相关立场在美俄核武库规模接近中国之前一直得到美国的支持。

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