El mito de la disociación

PALO ALTO, CALIF. – El hecho de que la economía estadounidense se esté desacelerando es una mala noticia para los europeos, independientemente de las afirmaciones de que la economía de Europa se ha disociado exitosamente de Estados Unidos. La disociación es una idea que se basa en teorías económicas malas – y en la reticencia de algunos europeos a aceptar el hecho de que la corta y dulce expansión económica de Europa también está llegando a su fin.

Es cierto que el mercado estadounidense se ha vuelto menos importante para las exportaciones europeas, al tiempo que la importancia del comercio de Asia ha aumentado. ¿Y qué? El comercio es sólo uno de los múltiples vínculos importantes entre las economías de Estados Unidos y Europa. En la economía global interconectada de hoy, la incertidumbre sobre el panorama económico estadounidense aumenta un día, y la confianza de los consumidores holandeses, por ejemplo, cae al siguiente.

Los vínculos entre Europa y Estados Unidos son francamente mucho más complejos de lo que se dan cuenta los defensores de la disociación. Por ejemplo, la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos está rebajando agresivamente las tasas de interés para impedir una posible recesión. Como consecuencia, el euro se está fortaleciendo no sólo frente al dólar sino también frente a las monedas asiáticas, cuyos bancos centrales intervienen en los mercados de divisas para fijar el valor de sus monedas al dólar.

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