Mýtus o oddělenosti

PALO ALTO, KALIFORNIE – Skutečnost, že americká ekonomika zpomaluje je pro Evropany špatnou zprávou, navzdory tvrzením, že evropská ekonomika se od Spojených států úspěšně oddělila. Oddělenost je představa založená na chybném ekonomickém uvažování – a na neochotě některých Evropanů připustit fakt, že krátký, ale sladký hospodářský rozmach Evropy také směřuje ke konci.

Pravda, americký trh se pro evropské vývozy stal méně důležitým, zatímco význam asijského obchodu pro Evropu se zvýšil. A co má být? Obchod je jen jedou z mnoha vazeb mezi USA a evropskými ekonomikami, na nichž záleží. V dnešní vzájemně provázané globální ekonomice jeden den zesílí nejistota ohledně ekonomických vyhlídek USA a další den se propadne třeba holandská důvěra spotřebitelů.

Vazby mezi Evropou a Amerikou jsou upřímně řečeno mnohem složitější, než zastánci oddělenosti přiznávají. Federální rezervní systém USA například ostře snižuje úrokové sazby, aby předešel možné recesi. V důsledku toho roste euro nejen vůči americkému dolaru, ale rovněž vůči asijským měnám, jejichž centrální banky intervenují na devizových trzích, aby hodnotu svých měn vůči dolaru zafixovaly.

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