脱藕之谜

帕罗奥多,加利福尼亚——美国经济疲软对于欧洲人来说无论如何都是一个坏消息,不管人们如何声称欧洲经济已经成功地与美国脱藕了。脱藕一说是建立在经济状况变坏以及某些欧洲人不愿意接受欧洲短暂但却甜蜜的经济扩张同样也在走向尽头的基础上的。

是的,美国市场对于欧洲的出口已经不再那么重要了,而与亚洲的贸易对于欧洲来说正变得越来越重要。那又怎样呢?贸易只是美国与欧洲经济众多重要联系中的一个方面而已。在今天大家越来越相互依赖的全球经济中,某一天如果对美国经济前景产生不确定,那么,比如说,荷兰的消费者信心在第二天就会下滑。

欧洲与美国之间的联系显然比那些鼓吹脱藕的人想象的要复杂得多。比如说,美联储正在越来越频繁地降低利率以预先阻止可能的衰退的发生。其结果是,不但是欧元对美元的汇率正变得越来越高,同时欧元对亚洲国家货币的汇率也在提高,那些国家的央行对外汇市场进行干预以便使它们的货币对美元的比率固定在一定的水平。

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