Una interpretación equivocada del reequilibrio chino

NEW HAVEN – La comentocracia ha sucumbido una vez más al síndrome del "colapso de China", trastorno que parece afectar a los comentaristas económicos y políticos cada cierto número de años. Olvidemos las recurrentes falsas alarmas de las últimas dos décadas. Esta vez es diferente, advierte el coro de escépticos.

Efectivamente, la economía de China se ha desacelerado. Si bien para el Occidente golpeado por la crisis sería un sueño igualar la tasa de crecimiento anual del PIB de 7.5% correspondiente al segundo trimestre de 2013 que anunció la Oficina Nacional de Estadísticas de China, ciertamente muestra una desaceleración notable en comparación con las tasas de crecimiento del 10% que se registraron de 1980 a 2010.

Pero no es solo la desaceleración lo que agita a los escépticos. También hay inquietudes sobre la deuda excesiva y los temores consiguientes de un sistema bancario frágil; preocupaciones por el colapso de la constante burbuja de la propiedad; y, sobre todo, la supuesta falta de avance real en términos de reequilibrio económico –el ansiado cambio de un modelo de crecimiento desequilibrado basado en las exportaciones y las inversiones a uno impulsado por el consumo privado interno.

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