Fehlinterpretation der chinesischen Neuorientierung

NEW HAVEN – Die Expertokratie hat sich wieder einmal dem „China-Crash“-Syndrom unterworfen – einem Leiden, das Wirtschafts- und Politikkommentatoren alle paar Jahre befällt. Trotz des wiederholten Falschalarms in den vergangenen zwei Jahrzehnten. Dieses Mal ist es etwas ganz anderes, argumentiert der Chor der China-Skeptiker.

Ja, Chinas Wirtschaft hat sich verlangsamt. Während der krisengeschüttelte Westen von den 7,5 Prozent jährlichen Wachstums des Bruttoinlandsproduktes nur träumen kann, die das chinesische Amt für Statistik für das zweite Quartal meldete, stellen sie sicherlich eine deutliche Verringerung im Vergleich zu den 10 Prozent Wachstums dar, die zwischen 1980 und 2010 erzielt wurden.

Aber es ist nicht nur die Verlangsamung, die die Skeptiker beunruhigt. Es besteht auch Sorge hinsichtlich übermäßiger Schulden und der damit zusammenhängenden Angst um das Bankensystem, hinsichtlich des Kollapses der stets präsenten Immobilienblase und, am wichtigsten, hinsichtlich des angeblich ausbleibenden Fortschritts bei der wirtschaftlichen Neuausrichtung – der lang erwartete Umschwung von einem Wachstumsmodell, das zu sehr auf Export und Investition beruht, hin zu einem Wachstum, das von internem privatem Konsum getrieben wird.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.


Log in

  1. An employee works at a chemical fiber weaving company VCG/Getty Images

    China in the Lead?

    For four decades, China has achieved unprecedented economic growth under a centralized, authoritarian political system, far outpacing growth in the Western liberal democracies. So, is Chinese President Xi Jinping right to double down on authoritarianism, and is the “China model” truly a viable rival to Western-style democratic capitalism?

  2. The assembly line at Ford Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

    Whither the Multilateral Trading System?

    The global economy today is dominated by three major players – China, the EU, and the US – with roughly equal trading volumes and limited incentive to fight for the rules-based global trading system. With cooperation unlikely, the world should prepare itself for the erosion of the World Trade Organization.

  3. Donald Trump Saul Loeb/Getty Images

    The Globalization of Our Discontent

    Globalization, which was supposed to benefit developed and developing countries alike, is now reviled almost everywhere, as the political backlash in Europe and the US has shown. The challenge is to minimize the risk that the backlash will intensify, and that starts by understanding – and avoiding – past mistakes.

  4. A general view of the Corn Market in the City of Manchester Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

    A Better British Story

    Despite all of the doom and gloom over the United Kingdom's impending withdrawal from the European Union, key manufacturing indicators are at their highest levels in four years, and the mood for investment may be improving. While parts of the UK are certainly weakening economically, others may finally be overcoming longstanding challenges.

  5. UK supermarket Waring Abbott/Getty Images

    The UK’s Multilateral Trade Future

    With Brexit looming, the UK has no choice but to redesign its future trading relationships. As a major producer of sophisticated components, its long-term trade strategy should focus on gaining deep and unfettered access to integrated cross-border supply chains – and that means adopting a multilateral approach.

  6. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now