Fehlinterpretation der chinesischen Neuorientierung

NEW HAVEN – Die Expertokratie hat sich wieder einmal dem „China-Crash“-Syndrom unterworfen – einem Leiden, das Wirtschafts- und Politikkommentatoren alle paar Jahre befällt. Trotz des wiederholten Falschalarms in den vergangenen zwei Jahrzehnten. Dieses Mal ist es etwas ganz anderes, argumentiert der Chor der China-Skeptiker.

Ja, Chinas Wirtschaft hat sich verlangsamt. Während der krisengeschüttelte Westen von den 7,5 Prozent jährlichen Wachstums des Bruttoinlandsproduktes nur träumen kann, die das chinesische Amt für Statistik für das zweite Quartal meldete, stellen sie sicherlich eine deutliche Verringerung im Vergleich zu den 10 Prozent Wachstums dar, die zwischen 1980 und 2010 erzielt wurden.

Aber es ist nicht nur die Verlangsamung, die die Skeptiker beunruhigt. Es besteht auch Sorge hinsichtlich übermäßiger Schulden und der damit zusammenhängenden Angst um das Bankensystem, hinsichtlich des Kollapses der stets präsenten Immobilienblase und, am wichtigsten, hinsichtlich des angeblich ausbleibenden Fortschritts bei der wirtschaftlichen Neuausrichtung – der lang erwartete Umschwung von einem Wachstumsmodell, das zu sehr auf Export und Investition beruht, hin zu einem Wachstum, das von internem privatem Konsum getrieben wird.

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