Una mala lectura de la economía global

PRINCETON – En abril de 2010, las Perspectivas de la Economía Mundial del Fondo Monetario Internacional ofrecieron una evaluación optimista de la economía global en la que se describía una recuperación de múltiples velocidades lo suficientemente fuerte como para respaldar un crecimiento anual del PBI de aproximadamente 4,5% para el futuro previsible -un ritmo más alto que durante la burbuja de los años 2000-2007-. Pero, desde entonces, el FMI ha recortado sostenidamente sus proyecciones económicas. De hecho, la tasa de crecimiento del PBI del 3,3% que se espera para este año -que ya se redujo en las Perspectivas más recientes- probablemente no se cumpla.

El optimismo persistente refleja un diagnóstico erróneo serio de los problemas de la economía global. Las proyecciones económicas, principalmente, han subestimado enormemente la gravedad de la crisis de la eurozona, así como su impacto en el resto del mundo. Y las perspectivas de recuperación siguen dependiendo de las economías emergentes, a pesar de que éstas experimentan una marcada desaceleración. La predicción de las Perspectivas de la Economía Mundial de un fortalecimiento de la recuperación este año sigue el camino del diagnóstico desacertado.

El anuncio del presidente del Banco Central Europeo, Mario Draghi, el verano pasado de que el BCE "haría lo fue fuera necesario" para preservar el euro tranquilizó a los mercados financieros. Pero, al mismo tiempo que ha menguado la presión de los mercados financieros, también se desvaneció el incentivo de los líderes europeos para encarar los problemas de la dinámica económica y política subyacente de la eurozona. Una liquidez fácil del BCE hoy está sustentando una amplia franja del sistema bancario de Europa.

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