Eine Fehldiagnose der Weltwirtschaft

PRINCETON – Im April 2010 kam der Weltwirtschaftsausblick des Internationalen Währungsfonds zu einer optimistischen Einschätzung der globalen Wirtschaft und prognostizierte für die nähere Zukunft etwa 4,5% jährliches BIP-Wachstum – höher als während der Blasenjahre 2000-2007. Aber seitdem hat der IWF seine Vorhersagen stetig gesenkt. Und die für dieses Jahr erwartete Wachstumsrate von 3,3% – die im jüngsten Wirtschaftsausblick nach unten revidiert worden war – wird voraussichtlich nicht erreicht.

Der anhaltende Optimismus spiegelt eine ernste Fehldiagnose der weltwirtschaftlichen Probleme wider. Insbesondere haben die wirtschaftlichen Vorhersagen die Ernsthaftigkeit der Eurokrise und ihren Einfluss auf den Rest der Welt massiv unterschätzt. Und die Erholungsaussichten hängen weiterhin von den Entwicklungs- und Schwellenländern ab, die selbst einen scharfen Einbruch erleiden. Dass der Wirtschaftsausblick für dieses Jahr eine deutlichere Erholung vorhersieht, ist Teil der Fehldiagnose.

Die Aussage des Präsidenten der Europäischen Zentralbank, Mario Draghi, vom letzten Sommer, die EZB werde tun, “was immer nötig ist”, um den Euro zu stabilisieren, gab den Finanzmärkten Sicherheit. Aber mit dem Druck der Finanzmärkte nahmen gleichzeitig auch die Anreize für die europäischen Politiker ab, die Probleme der wirtschaftlichen und politischen Dynamik der Eurozone zu lösen. Ein riesiger Teil des europäischen Bankensystems wird nun von lockerem EZB-Geld am Leben gehalten.

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