误读全球经济

普林斯顿—2010年4月,IMF《世界经济展望》对全球经济做出了乐观评估,其中所描述的多速复苏足以在可预见的未来支撑4—5%的GDP年增长率——比2000—2007年泡沫期还要高。但是,此后,IMF稳步下调了其经济预测。事实上,今年的预期GDP增长率——3.3%,这是最新一期《世界经济展望》中向下修正后的数字——也可能无法达到。

持续的乐观表明人们对全球经济问题存在重大误判。最引人瞩目的是,经济预测大大低估了欧元区危机的严重程度及其对世界其他地区的影响。复苏前景继续取决于新兴市场,尽管它们经历了快速减速。《世界经济展望》关于今年复苏加强的预测仍然是误判。

欧洲央行行长德拉吉去年夏天宣布欧洲央行将“竭尽所能”捍卫欧元,这给了金融市场一颗定心丸。但是,随着金融市场压力有所舒缓,欧洲领导人纠正欧元区经济和政治活力的根本性问题的激励也放松了。如今,宽松的欧洲央行流动性是欧洲银行系统的续命丹。

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