دول عدم اليقين العربي

مدريد ــ كانت الثورات التي اجتاحت العالم العربي على مدى العامين الماضيين سبباً في الكشف عن الهشاشة غير العادية التي تتسم بها دول عربية رئيسية. إن أغلب الدول العربية، باستثناء دول تاريخية مثل مصر أو المغرب، عبارة عن تراكيب مصطنعة افتعلها الاستعمار الأوروبي، الذي جمع بين قبائل ومجموعات عِرقية متباينة متغايرة في دول موحدة مركزية لا يمكن الحفاظ على تماسكها إلا من خلال الحكم الاستبدادي وفي ظل وجود عدو مشترك ــ الصهيونية وأنصارها في الغرب.

بيد أن اضطرابات اليوم لم يعد يحركها غضب موجه نحو قوى أجنبية؛ بل إنها في واقع الأمر تمثل مرحلة ثانية من عملية إنهاء الاستعمار: التأكيد على حق تقرير المصير من قِبَل الشعوب والقبائل التي لا يوحدها سوى نير الحاكم المستبد. والواقع أنه ليس من المستبعد تماماً أن نتوقع ظهور دول عربية جديدة من تحت أنقاض الدول القديمة المصطنعة. ولقد ساعد الغزو الأميركي للعراق في تحديد النمط، فكسر سلطة الحكومة المركزية وعمل على تمكين جيوب عرقية ودينية.

وما حدث في يوغوسلافيا، المنتج الملفق غير المدروس لدبلوماسية وودرو ويلسون، قد يحدث في الصنائع الاستعمارية الأشد سوءاً في الشرق الأوسط. كان ما أطلق عليه سيجموند فرويد وصف "نرجسية الاختلافات الطفيفة" سبباً في تقسيم يوغوسلافيا إلى سبع دول صغيرة (بما في ذلك كوسوفو) في أعقاب الاقتتال الأشد عنفاً ودموية في أوروبا منذ الحرب العالمية الثانية. فهل تتمكن الدول العربية من تجنب مصير مماثل؟

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