Les pièges militaires du Moyen-Orient

Le paradoxe de la violence qui fait rage actuellement en Israël, à Gaza et au Liban est que le moyen de mettre fin au conflit israélo-palestinien n’est pourtant pas difficile à trouver. Une vaste majorité d’Israéliens et de Palestiniens se prononce en faveur de la solution de deux États, qui repose sur le retour aux frontières de 1967. Les grands États arabes, dont l’Egypte et l’Arabie Saoudite, partagent ce point de vue. Le problème n’est pas de devoir trouver une issue, mais de la traduire dans les faits, car les minorités influentes et souvent violentes des deux camps s’opposent à la solution soutenue par la majorité.

Trois quarts des Israéliens et des Palestiniens aspirent à la paix et au compromis, tandis qu’un quart – souvent attisé par une ferveur religieuse extrême – recherche la victoire absolue sur l’adversaire. Les radicaux palestiniens veulent détruire Israël et les radicaux israéliens contrôler toute la Rive ouest, soit par le biais d’une occupation permanente, soit (pour une infime minorité) par une expulsion de la population palestinienne.

Quand la paix est à portée de main, les radicaux, quel que soit leur camp, cherchent à tout prix à la torpiller. Leurs agissements sont parfois sources de graves différends entre les modérés et les radicaux du même bord, comme cela a été le cas lorsqu’un fanatique religieux israélien assassina le Premier Ministre Yitzhak Rabin au moment où les négociations de paix avançaient à grands pas. De temps à autre, les manœuvres des radicaux palestiniens pour faire échouer la paix consistent à lancer une attaque terroriste sur des civils israéliens, dans l’espoir de provoquer une riposte violente et exagérée de la part d’Israël – riposte qui ferait voler en éclat la confiance naissante des modérés des deux camps.

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