中东的军事幻觉

当前以色列、加沙和黎巴嫩暴力的自相矛盾之处是,巴以冲突的解决之道并不难以看到。以色列和巴勒斯坦的大部分人都赞同基本上沿着1967年之前的边界的建立两个国家的解决途径。主要的阿拉伯国家,包括埃及、沙特阿拉伯以及其他国家都持有这一观点。问题并不是发现方案,而是实现方案,因为两方面强大而经常是暴力的少数派反对大多数人支持的方案。

大约四分之三的以色列人和巴勒斯坦人渴望和平和妥协,而各方四分之一的人经常受到极端宗教狂热的怂恿,想要彻底战胜对方。激进的巴勒斯坦人想要摧毁以色列,而激进的以色列人则要求通过要么继续占领或者甚至是强行驱逐巴勒斯坦人口(极少数人这样认为)而控制整个西岸地带。

当和平看起来垂手可得的时候,冲突一方或者另一方的激进者挑起爆炸性事件进行破坏。有时候是一方内部温和派和激进派之间的公开冲突,例如正当和平谈判取得进展之际,一名以色列宗教狂热分子暗杀了以色列总理拉宾。有时候是激进的巴勒斯坦人对以色列的平民进行恐怖主义攻击,籍以挑起以色列的过激暴力性反应,从而打破双方温和派之间建立信任的进程。

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