El gatillo sensible de Oriente Medio

TEL AVIV – En todo Oriente Medio, está cobrando fuerza una creencia generalizada: la guerra es inevitable. Algunos ven la guerra como una manera de resolver una situación cada vez más empantanada y sacudir un orden regional disfuncional cuyos principales actores no sólo están en desacuerdo, sino que también son incapaces de resolver las carencias de legitimidad de sus respectivos regímenes.

Una descarga de comentarios incendiarios entre Israel y tanto Siria como Hezbollah ha alimentado las ansiedades sobre la posibilidad de una guerra en la frontera norte de Israel. El nivel de sensibilidad es tal que la tensión más reciente fue iniciada por los sirios, que malinterpretaron como una amenaza el llamado del ministro de Defensa israelí, Ehud Barak, a iniciar las negociaciones de paz precisamente para prevenir “una guerra regional generalizada”.

El líder de Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, por primera vez advirtió explícitamente a los israelíes que una nueva ronda de conflicto ya no estaría limitada a un enfrentamiento israelí-libanés, sino que involucraría a todo el “eje de confrontación” regional –Siria, Irán, Hezbollah y Hamas-. Esto también sucedería si Israel diera rienda suelta a su Fuerza Aérea contra las instalaciones nucleares de Irán. Es más, Nasrallah dejó en claro que la “Doctrina Dahyia” de Israel de total devastación del Líbano en caso de guerra recibiría una respuesta del mismo tenor.

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