Tensions Moyen-Orientales

TEL AVIV – Une idée reçue fataliste se répand à travers le Moyen-Orient, celle de l’inévitabilité de   la guerre. D’aucuns voient la guerre comme une solution à une situation de plus en bloquée, pour ébranler l’ordre dysfonctionnel d’une région dont les acteurs principaux ne sont pas seulement stupides, mais aussi incapables de recouvrir la légitimité qui manque à leurs régimes respectifs.

L’inquiétude que suscite l’éventualité d’une guerre à la frontière au Nord d’Israël s’accroît à cause d’une série de remarques incendiaires entre Israël et la Syrie et le Hezbollah. La tension est telle que la dernière invective a été initiée par les Syriens, qui ont pris pour une menace, à tort, l’appel du ministre de la défense israélienne Ehoud Barak à entamer des pourparlers de paix, justement dans le but d’éviter une guerre régionale totale.

Le leader du Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, a pour la première fois prévenu les Israéliens : une nouvelle attaque ne se limiterait pas à une épreuve de force entre le Liban et Israël, mais impliquerait l’axe de confrontation régional tout entier – la Syrie, l’Iran, le Hezbollah et le Hamas. Cela pourrait aussi être déclenché par une frappe de l’armée de l’air israélienne contre les installations nucléaires iraniennes. Nasrallah a de plus annoncé clairement que la « Doctrine Dahyia » d’Israël, visant à anéantir complètement le Liban en cas de guerre, ferait l’objet de représailles à l’identique.

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