一触即发的中东局势

特拉维夫 —— 宿命论的传统智慧正在中东各国抬头:战争一定会不可避免的爆发。有人把战争看作打开僵持局面的唯一方法,依靠战争彻底调整不正常的地区秩序,因为目前各主要势力不仅分歧严重,并且无法解决各自政府在合法性方面的危机。

以色列和叙利亚以及真主党之间新一轮密集的煽动性言论已经引发了对于以色列北部边境可能爆发战争的担忧。局势非常敏感,而叙利亚人的误解则让紧张局势进一步加剧,他们将以色列国防部长 埃胡德·巴拉克启动和平谈判的呼吁错误地理解为威胁,而巴拉克启动和谈的目的正是要防止“爆发全面的地区战争。”

真主党领导人 哈桑·纳斯鲁拉首次公开警告以色列,新一轮冲突将不仅再局限于以色列-黎巴嫩之间的对决,而会牵扯到整个地区的“对峙轴心” —— 叙利亚、伊朗、真主党和哈马斯。如果以色列对伊朗核设施发动空袭也将爆发全面冲突。此外,纳斯鲁拉明确指出以色列在战争中彻底摧毁黎巴嫩的“达伊亚主义”将招致同样的报复。

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