La feuille de route au risque de l'enlisement

Le récent élan qu'a donné le président George W. Bush à la "feuille de route" destinée à résoudre israélo-palestinien est bienvenu et son acceptation par les deux parties est de bon augure. Mais les chances qu'elle ouvre la voie à une véritable réconciliation restent faibles.

Il y a plusieurs raisons à cela, la première étant que cette "feuille de route" n'est guère plus qu'une liste de voeux pieux de ce qu'il y faudrait faire pour aboutir à la paix entre Israël et les Palestiniens. Ses objectifs sont nobles, mais son contenu est souvent éloigné de la réalité politique de la région.

Ainsi, la feuille de route reconnaît à juste titre que le conflit ne peut être résolu sans tenir compte de la situation sur le terrain. Elle prévoit des concessions importantes de la part d'Israël, à savoir le retrait de la rive gauche du Jourdain et de Gaza, le démantèlement des colonies et des compromis au sujet de Jérusalem. Mais le "quartet" à l'origine de cette feuille de route (les USA, l'UE, la Russie et l'ONU) sait qu'il ne pourra pas convaincre Israël de faire ces concessions sans un changement radical de l'attitude du monde arabe quant à l'existence de l'Etat juif. Si la paix a été conclue avec l'Egypte et la Jordanie, des pays tels que la Syrie ou la Libye constituent toujours une menace pour Israël. Les régimes extrémistes au pouvoir dans ces pays sont impliqués dans les attentats terroristes contre les civils en Israël et ils détiennent des armes de destruction massive ou essayent d'en acquérir.

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