Jon Krause

El coco de la confianza de los mercados

CAMBRIDGE – Un espectro recorre Europa: el de la “confianza de los mercados”.

Puede que fuera el miedo al comunismo lo que agitó a los gobiernos cuando Karl Marx escribió la primera línea de su famoso manifiesto de 1848, pero hoy es el pavor de que el sentimiento de los mercados se vuelva contra ellos e impulse los diferenciales de sus bonos estatales. Los gobiernos se están viendo obligados por doquier a hacer una reducción fiscal prematura, pese a que el desempleo sigue siendo muy elevado y la demanda privada da pocas señales de vida. Muchos se ven abocados a emprender reformas estructurales en las que en realidad no creen... simplemente porque no gustaría a los mercados que no lo hicieran.

El terror inspirado por el sentimiento de los mercados era en tiempos la cruz sólo de las naciones pobres. Durante la crisis de la deuda latinoamericana del decenio de 1980 o la crisis financiera asiática de 1997, por ejemplo, países en desarrollo muy endeudados pensaban que no tenían otra opción que la de tragar una medicina amarga... o afrontar una fuga de capitales. Al parecer, ahora es el turno de España, Francia, Gran Bretaña, Alemania e incluso, como sostienen muchos analistas, los Estados Unidos.

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