Jon Krause

Il mito della “fiducia del mercato”

CAMBRIDGE – Uno spettro si aggira per l’Europa- lo spettro della “fiducia del mercato”.

Può darsi che a turbare i governi  fosse la paura del comunismo, quando Karl Marx scrisse nel 1848 le prime righe del suo famoso Manifesto. Ma oggi ad aggirarsi e a impaurire è il timore che  i mercati possano rivoltarsi contro gli stati e spingere verso l’alto gli spread del loro debito pubblico, cioè i costi del debito rispetto a quelli dei paesi più solidi. Ovunque i governi sono spinti quindi ad adottare premature misure di austerità fiscale, anche se la disoccupazione rimane troppo alta e la domanda privata non dà molti segni di vita. Molti paesi sono spinti ad adottare riforme strutturali nelle quali credono solo a metà, e per il solo fatto che non adottarle sarebbe – si pensa – malvisto dai mercati.

Il terrore diffuso dagli umori dei mercati incalzava una volta soltanto i paesi poveri. Durante la crisi debitoria dell’America Latina negli anni 80 o la crisi finanziaria asiatica del 1997, ad esempio, paesi in via di sviluppo e ad alto indebitamento ritennero di avere ben poche alternative: inghiottire l’amara medicina o assistere a una fuga disordinata e definitiva di capitali. Apparentemente adesso è la volta di Spagna, Francia, Gran Bretagna, Germania e, molti analisti sostengono, anche degli Stati Uniti.

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