Jon Krause

L’épouvantail de la confiance du marché

CAMBRIDGE – Un spectre hante l’Europe – le spectre de « la confiance du marché ».

La peur du communisme a peut-être été une source d’inquiétude pour les gouvernements au moment où Karl Marx couchait sur le papier les premiers mots de son fameux manifeste en 1949, mais aujourd’hui, ce qu’ils redoutent est que l’humeur du marché puisse se retourner contre eux et ne creuse les écarts entre les obligations d’état. Les gouvernements un peu partout dans le monde sont obligés de procéder à des contractions budgétaires prématurées, même si le chômage reste très élevé et que la demande privée montre quelques soubresauts. Nombre d’entre eux sont obligés d’entreprendre des réformes structurelles auxquelles ils ne croient pas vraiment – simplement parce que ne pas le faire serait mal perçu par les marchés.

La terreur que fait régner l’humeur du marché fut à une époque le fléau des seules nations pauvres. Au cours de la crise de la dette latino-américaine des années 80 ou au cours de la crise financière asiatique de 1997, par exemple, les économies en développement lourdement endettées pensaient qu’ils avaient peu d’options si ce n’est d’avaler l’amère pilule – à moins  de faire face à un torrent d’exode des capitaux. Il semble que ce soit aujourd’hui au tour de l’Espagne, de la France, de la Grande Bretagne, de l’Allemagne et, selon de nombreux analystes, des Etats-Unis même.

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