Paul Lachine

La creación del déficit comercial de China

BEIJING – China registró un déficit comercial mensual de 7.2 mil millones de dólares en marzo de 2010, el primero desde abril de 2004. Y no obstante, más o menos al mismo tiempo, el Congreso de los Estados Unidos dio a conocer su más fuerte llamado para clasificar a China como una manipuladora del tipo de cambio, acusando a los líderes chinos de mantener el renminbi vinculado al dólar para garantizar un superávit comercial bilateral permanente.

El déficit comercial de China de marzo, indica, primero que nada, que es incorrecto decir que el crecimiento económico chino depende principalmente de las exportaciones. Las exportaciones son una parte importante de la economía china y cualquier fluctuación o choque externo ciertamente tendría un impacto en el crecimiento global. Sin embargo, como cualquier otra economía grande, la de China está impulsada por el consumo interno y la inversión.

En efecto, las exportaciones de China cayeron un 16% interanual en 2009 debido a la crisis financiera global y la recesión. Sin embargo, el PIB anual creció 8.7% gracias al crecimiento en el consumo de 16.9% (calculado según la venta bruta de bienes de consumo) y un aumento de 33.3% en la demanda de inversión fija.

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