Paul Lachine

So entstand Chinas Handelsdefizit

BEIJING – China hat im März 2010 ein Monats-Handelsdefizit von 7,2 Milliarden Dollar verzeichnet, das erste seit April 2004. Und trotzdem hat ungefähr zur selben Zeit der Kongress der Vereinigten Staaten so laut wie noch nie China als angeblichen Wechselkursmanipulator gebrandmarkt und die führenden chinesischen Politiker beschuldigt, an der Bindung des Renminbi zum Dollar fest zu halten, um den bilateralen Handelsüberschuss aufrecht zu erhalten.

Chinas Märzdefizit ist zunächst einmal ein Indiz dafür, dass die Behauptung, Chinas Wirtschaftswachstum hinge hauptsächlich von Exporten ab, nicht korrekt ist. Exporte sind ein wichtiger Teil der chinesischen Wirtschaft und jede globale Marktschwankung, jeder externe Schock wird sicherlich Auswirkungen auf das Gesamtwachstum haben. Aber wie bei jeder anderen großen Volkswirtschaft wird auch Chinas Wirtschaft von Binnenverbrauch und Investitionen angetrieben.

Chinas Exportrate ist 2009 tatsächlich im Zuge der globalen Finanzkrise und Rezession um 16 Prozent gefallen. Trotzdem ist das Bruttoinlandsprodukt um 8,7 Prozent gestiegen, dank eines Anstiegs beim Verbrauch um 16,9 Prozent (gemessen am Bruttoverkauf von Konsumgütern) und eines Anstiegs von 33,3 Prozent bei der Nachfrage nach Anlageinvestitionen.

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