Paul Lachine

Comment s’est fabriqué le déficit commercial chinois

BEIJING – En mars 2010, la Chine a accusé un déficit commercial mensuel de 7,2 milliards de dollars – le dernier remontait à avril 2004. Le Congrès des Etats-Unis choisit pourtant à peu près ce moment-là pour stigmatiser la Chine, comme pays manipulateur de taux de change, et reprocher à ses dirigeants d’indexer le renminbi sur le dollar pour afficher un excédent permanent du commerce bilatéral.

Ce déficit enregistré en mars montre avant tout qu’il est erroné de prétendre que la croissance économique chinoise dépend principalement de son exportation. L’exportation représente une part importante de l’économie chinoise, forcément sensible à toute fluctuation du marché mondial, à tout choc extérieur, mais qui, comme toute économie d’envergure, est alimentée par la consommation et l’investissement domestiques.

Certes, les exportations chinoises baissent en 2009 de 16% en glissement annuel, crise financière mondiale et récession obligent, mais le PIB annuel augmente de 8,7%, grâce à une hausse de 16,9% de la consommation (déterminée par le chiffre d’affaires TTC des biens de consommation) et à un sursaut de 33,3% de la demande d’investissement fixe.

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