Známé neznámé letošního podzimu

NEW YORK – Za vrcholných dob irácké války tehdejší americký ministr obrany Donald Rumsfeld hovořil o „známých neznámých“ – předvídatelných rizicích, jejichž výskyt v praxi je nejistý. Dnešní globální ekonomika čelí mnoha známým neznámým, z nichž většina vychází z neznámých v politických přístupech.

Ve Spojených státech se letos na podzim vystupňují tři prameny nejistoty. V prvé řadě je stále nejasné, zda Federální rezervní systém začne v září nebo později „zužovat“ své časově neohraničené kvantitativní uvolňování (QE), jak rychle omezí nákupy dlouhodobých aktiv a kdy a jak rychle začne zvyšovat úrokové sazby z jejich současné nulové hladiny. Dále je tu otázka, kdo vystřídá Bena Bernankeho na postu předsedy Fedu. Konečně další partajní přetlačovaná nad americkým dluhovým stropem by mohla zvýšit riziko vládního provizoria, nedokážou-li se Sněmovna reprezentantů, ovládaná republikány, a prezident Barack Obama a jeho demokratičtí spojenci dohodnout na rozpočtu.

První dva zdroje nejistoty už postihují trhy. Vzestup dlouhodobých amerických úrokových sazeb – z květnového 1,6% minima na aktuální vrcholy nad 2,9 % – vychází z obav trhů, že Fed zúží QE příliš brzy a příliš rychle, a z nejistoty obklopující Bernankeho nástupce.

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