Krise mit Iran zeichnet sich ab

NEW YORK – Wenn Barack Obama im Januar sein Amt antritt, werden ihn viele schwierige Aufgaben begrüßen, angefangen bei der akuten Wirtschaftskrise. Doch wird er sich nicht den Luxus gönnen können, sich ausschließlich darauf zu konzentrieren. Er wird auch mit einer Reihe außenpolitischer Herausforderungen zu kämpfen haben. Von diesen könnte der Iran mit seinem Atomprogramm möglicherweise die erste außenpolitische Krise der Regierung Obama darstellen.

Dafür gibt es einen einfachen Grund. Der Iran ist weit fortgeschritten in seiner Fähigkeit, Uran in einem so großen Maßstab anzureichern, dass es für die Herstellung von Atomwaffen ausreichen würde. Die Internationale Atomenergieorganisation hat soeben berichtet, der Iran könnte diesen Punkt 2009 wahrscheinlich erreichen.

Ein Iran mit Atomwaffen oder der Fähigkeit, kurzfristig eine oder mehrere Bomben zu produzieren, stellt eine echte Gefahr dar. Dennoch bestünde eine Möglichkeit für die neue amerikanische Regierung darin, die „Nordkorea-Option“ zu wählen und mit der Bedrohung zu leben. Das Risiko dabei ist, dass sich die Lage im bereits instabilen und konfliktanfälligen Nahen Osten noch verschlimmern würde.

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