Ruiner sa monnaie ou se ruiner soi-même ?

NEWPORT BEACH – Peu de pays recherchent aujourd’hui un taux de change fort ; quelques uns, y compris certains dont l’importance est systémique, affaiblissent déjà activement leur monnaie. Pourtant, parce qu’un taux de change est un prix relatif, toutes les monnaies ne peuvent pas se déprécier simultanément. La manière selon laquelle le monde parviendra à résoudre cette incohérence fondamentale aura un impact majeur sur les perspectives de croissance, d’emploi, de répartition des revenus, et sur le fonctionnement de l’économie globale.

Le Japon est le dernier pays à avoir dit ça suffit. Compte tenu de l’appréciation dramatique de sa monnaie ces dernières années, le nouveau gouvernement du Premier ministre Shinzo Abe a pris des mesures pour altérer la dynamique du taux de change japonais – et y parvient. En à peine deux mois, le yen a perdu plus de 10% par rapport au dollar et près de 20% par rapport à l’euro.

Les dirigeants européens ont déjà exprimé leurs réserves concernant cette mesure japonaise. L’industrie automobile américaine est outrée. Et il y a quelques jours, le président de la Bundesbank Jens Weidmann, a officiellement mis en garde contre le risque d’un cycle dangereux, et à terme inutile, de dépréciations concurrentielles des taux de change – soit en termes plus crus, d’une « guerre monétaire » (un terme déjà utilisé par le Brésil pour exprimer des inquiétudes similaires.)

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/keHc2XD/fr;
  1. Chris J Ratcliffe/Getty Images

    The Brexit Surrender

    European Union leaders meeting in Brussels have given the go-ahead to talks with Britain on post-Brexit trade relations. But, as European Council President Donald Tusk has said, the most difficult challenge – forging a workable deal that secures broad political support on both sides – still lies ahead.

  2. The Great US Tax Debate

    ROBERT J. BARRO vs. JASON FURMAN & LAWRENCE H. SUMMERS on the impact of the GOP tax  overhaul.


    • Congressional Republicans are finalizing a tax-reform package that will reshape the business environment by lowering the corporate-tax rate and overhauling deductions. 

    • But will the plan's far-reaching changes provide the boost to investment and growth that its backers promise?


    ROBERT J. BARRO | How US Corporate Tax Reform Will Boost Growth

    JASON FURMAN & LAWRENCE H. SUMMERS | Robert Barro's Tax Reform Advocacy: A Response

  3. Murdoch's Last Stand?

    Rupert Murdoch’s sale of 21st Century Fox’s entertainment assets to Disney for $66 billion may mark the end of the media mogul’s career, which will long be remembered for its corrosive effect on democratic discourse on both sides of the Atlantic. 

    From enabling the rise of Donald Trump to hacking the telephone of a murdered British schoolgirl, Murdoch’s media empire has staked its success on stoking populist rage.

  4. Bank of England Leon Neal/Getty Images

    The Dangerous Delusion of Price Stability

    Since the hyperinflation of the 1970s, which central banks were right to combat by whatever means necessary, maintaining positive but low inflation has become a monetary-policy obsession. But, because the world economy has changed dramatically since then, central bankers have started to miss the monetary-policy forest for the trees.

  5. Harvard’s Jeffrey Frankel Measures the GOP’s Tax Plan

    Jeffrey Frankel, a professor at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government and a former member of President Bill Clinton’s Council of Economic Advisers, outlines the five criteria he uses to judge the efficacy of tax reform efforts. And in his view, the US Republicans’ most recent offering fails miserably.

  6. A box containing viles of human embryonic Stem Cell cultures Sandy Huffaker/Getty Images

    The Holy Grail of Genetic Engineering

    CRISPR-Cas – a gene-editing technique that is far more precise and efficient than any that has come before it – is poised to change the world. But ensuring that those changes are positive – helping to fight tumors and mosquito-borne illnesses, for example – will require scientists to apply the utmost caution.

  7. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now