贬值货币还是贬值国家?

发自纽波特滩——现在追求强势货币的国家不是很多;一些国家——包括那些具有系统重要性的——已经开始积极降低本国货币汇率。但由于汇率是一个相对价格,所有的货币不可能同时贬值。而在接下来的几年里,全世界对这一基本矛盾的解决方法将会对经济增长、就业率、收入分配及全球经济运行的前景产生重大的影响。

而日本则是最近的一个无法再容忍这一争相贬值现象的国家。眼看着本国货币近几年来戏剧性地升值,首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)所领导的新政府正在采取措施改变本国货币汇率的动向——并且成效显著。在短短两个月间,日元对美元的汇率就下跌了10%,而对欧元则下跌了近20%。

欧洲领导人对日本的举措持保留意见。美国汽车工业则对此大动肝火。几天前,德国联邦银行行长——延斯·魏德曼(Jens Weidmann)就发出了警告:现在世界正面临着一轮有害并且徒劳的竞争性汇率贬值——或者更直白地说是一场“汇率战”(这个术语之前被巴西用来表达类似的担忧)的风险。

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