Paul Lachine

以色列错失的和平攻势

特拉维夫—即使在最近的停火达成之前,以色列在加沙的两难困境便昭然若揭了——这绝不是简单地把哈马斯挑战诉诸武力解决的问题。真正的问题是以色列领导人是否有能力使用新的非军事工具平息自阿拉伯之春以来席卷整个地区的反以色列怒潮。而如今,巴勒斯坦获得联合国观察员国资格的尝试获得了空前的成功,以色列的难题也随之变得极为棘手。

自以色列最近的入侵加沙之举——2008年的“铸铅行动”以来,地区环境已经发生了剧烈的改变,以色列就是在这样的环境中与哈马斯摊牌的。伊斯兰政权在阿拉伯世界的全面开花,以及随之而来的地区结盟运动加剧了以色列的国家孤立。主要地区势力——如埃及、土耳其和卡塔尔等——现在都支持信心高涨的哈马斯,如今,后者的最高目标是巩固其改善的国际合法性、逼宫约旦河西岸的巴勒斯坦权力机构。

事实上,以色列现在已陷入战略陷阱,不仅是因为阿拉伯之春,也是因为其自身的外交错误,特别是与其土耳其盟友关系的瓦解。炫耀军力毫无用处,唯有稳步推进和平外交可能结束以色列的孤立。不幸的是,以色列领导人无法拿出处理中东地区所发生的战略再调整的政治才能。

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