Die Grenzen der chinesischen Verbraucherrevolution

SHANGHAI – Chinas Wirtschaft befindet sich an einem Scheideweg. Anfang 2013 fragen sich in- und ausländische Beobachter gleichermaßen, welche Entwicklung die Wirtschaft des Landes im nächsten Jahrzehnt nehmen soll. Wie kann China angesichts erheblicher interner und externer Herausforderungen wie dem mittel- und langfristigen Wachstum, steigenden Lohnkosten und wachsendem Inflationsdruck einen stabiles und nachhaltiges Wachstum sicherstellen?

Nachdem die globale Wirtschaftskrise die externe Nachfrage geschwächt hat, die das beispiellose Wachstum drei Jahrzehnte lang aufrecht erhalten hatte, hat die politische Führung die interne Nachfrage, besonders den Binnenkonsum, zum neuen Wachstumsmotor des Landes erkoren. Beim Kongress der Chinesischen KP im November hat sie ihre Absicht verkündet, das Prokopfeinkommen bis 2020 zu verdoppeln und damit eine Kaufkraft von 64 Billionen Renminbi zu erzeugen.

Mit ungefähr 130 Millionen Verbrauchern in der Mittelschicht birgt der chinesische Binnenmarkt ein erhebliches Potenzial. Schätzungen der Boston Consulting Group zufolge wird der chinesische Binnenverbrauch bei einem jährlichen Wachstum des Bruttoinlandprodukts von 7 Prozent in China und 2 Prozent in den USA bis 2015 auf die Hälfte und bis 2020 auf 80 Prozent des amerikanischen Binnenverbrauchs ansteigen (vorausgesetzt, der Reminbi wird in den nächsten Jahren im Vergleich zum Dollar um durchschnittlich 3 Prozent aufgewertet).

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