中国的下一个经济转型靠什么?

北京 – 未来十年中国经济转型之路,到底路在何方?这是几乎所有关心中国经济的人都在思考和关心的问题。从国际国内的宏观大视野看,站在十字路口的中国经济,面临着中长期增速下滑与成本上升,以及内外部双重夹击的多种挑战,中国经济转型已经没有退路,但首要的是,必须找准转型的方向和路径。

当前,已经取得的共识是,中国经济必须由外需驱动转向内需驱动,特别是向消费驱动转变,而中国消费也将会释放巨大的潜在势能。根据十八大2020年居民收入翻一番的目标,届时将释放64万亿的购买力。而如果按照未来几年中国GDP平均同比增长7%、美国同比增长2%的情景假设,在人民币兑美元汇率每年平均升值3%的前提下,波士顿公司预计,到2015年中国国内消费水平将达到美国的一半以上,到2020年达到美国水平的80%。

数据显示,2010年中国进口额居世界第二,2011年贸易顺差连续3年减少,贸易顺差占GDP比重由2007年的超过10%下降到2.8%。预计,2011-2015年进口额年均增长可高达27%,快于出口增速5个百分点左右。今后5年,中国货物进口总规模将超过10万亿美元,这将为全球公司提供更多的投资机会和广阔市场。

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