حدود ثورة المستهلكين في الصين

شنغهاي ــ لقد أصبح اقتصاد الصين عند مفترق طرق. فمع بداية عام 2013، يتساءل المراقبون الأجانب والمحليون على حد سواء عن مسار التنمية الاقتصادية الذي ينبغي للبلاد أن تسلكه في العقد المقبل. فكيف للصين أن تضمن نمواً مستقراً ومستداماً في مواجهة قدر لا يستهان به من التحديات الداخلية والخارجية، بما في ذلك تباطؤ النمو في الأمدين المتوسط والبعيد، وارتفاع تكاليف العمالة، وتصاعد الضغوط التضخمية؟

بعد أن تسببت الأزمة الاقتصادية العالمية في إضعاف الطلب الخارجي، الذي ساعد في دعم النمو الاقتصادي غير المسبوق في الصين طيلة ثلاثة عقود من الزمان، اتفقت السلطات على أن الطلب الداخلي ، وخاصة الاستهلاك المحلي، لابد أن يصبح المحرك الجديد للنمو في البلاد. وفي مؤتمر الحزب الشيوعي الصيني في نوفمبر/تشرين الثاني، أعلن زعماء الصين عن اعتزامهم مضاعفة نصيب الفرد في الدخل بحلول عام 2020، لإطلاق العنان لنحو 64 تريليون رنمينبي (10,2 تريليون دولار أميركي) من القوة الشرائية.

الواقع أن السوق المحلية في الصين، التي تضم نحو 130 مليون مستهلك ينتمون إلى الطبقة المتوسطة، تحمل إمكانات كبيرة. وطبقاً لتقديرات مجموعة بوسطن الاستشارية، فمع نمو الناتج المحلي السنوي بمعدل يبلغ في المتوسط 7% في الصين و2% في الولايات المتحدة، فإن الاستهلاك المحلي الصيني سوف يرتفع إلى نصف نظيره في الولايات المتحدة بحلول عام 2015، ثم إلى 80% من الاستهلاك المحلي الأميركي في عام 2020 (على افتراض أن قيمة الرنمينبي سوف ترتفع بمتوسط 3% في مقابل الدولار الأميركي على مدى السنوات القليلة المقبلة).

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