Paul Lachine

Il nuovo vincolo inflazionistico della Cina

PECHINO – Nel secondo trimestre di quest’anno, il tasso di crescita della Cina è rallentato scendendo dal 7,7% registrato nel periodo tra gennaio-marzo al 7,5% su base annuale, in linea con le previsioni degli ultimi mesi da parte degli economisti cinesi. All’inizio del 2013 sia gli economisti cinesi che stranieri erano tuttavia ben più ottimisti rispetto alle prospettive di crescita della Cina. Cos’è dunque cambiato?

La crescita cinese ha mantenuto uno schema ciclico negli ultimi vent’anni. Subito dopo il crollo della Lehman Brothers nel settembre del 2008, la Cina ha tirato fuori un pacchetto di incentivi pari a 4 trilioni di renminbi (650 miliardi di dollari) grazie al quale l’economia è riuscita a ripartire rapidamente con un tasso di crescita su base annuale che ha toccato il 12,1% nel primo trimestre del 2010.

Nel gennaio del 2010, la Banca Popolare Cinese ha poi deciso di imporre maggiore rigidità sulla politica monetaria per impedire lo scoppio di una bolla immobiliare e prevenire un aumento dell’inflazione. In seguito, nel novembre del 2011, la banca ha invece allentato la sua politica monetaria per bloccare la conseguente perdita di slancio economico. Molti si aspettavano un ripristino veloce della crescita, ma la ripresa è invece arrivata solo nel quarto trimestre del 2012. E, cosa ancor peggiore, invece di un nuovo slancio per la crescita, nel secondo trimestre del 2013 il tasso ha iniziato a diminuire, pertanto tutti i più importanti economisti stanno ora rivedendo al ribasso le proiezioni per la crescita su base annuale.

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