Paul Lachine

中国新通胀束缚

北京——今年二季度中国的经济增速从一至三月的7.7%放缓至年同比7.5%,这与最近几个月中国经济学家的预测是一致的。 但2013年初,国内外经济学家还对中国的经济增长前景更加乐观。那么,究竟是什么因素发生了变化?

近二十年来,中国的经济增长模式一直呈现周期性特征。就在2008年9月雷曼兄弟倒闭后,中国出台了四万亿人民币(合6500亿美元)的经济刺激计划。经济增速迅速反弹,年化增长率于2010年第一季度飙升至12.1%。

为了遏制房地产泡沫和预防通胀上升,中国人民银行于2010年1月收紧了货币政策。而后为了对抗由此造成的经济增长动力丧失,中国人民银行于2011年11月放宽货币政策。多数人认为快速增长的局面将很快重现,但直到2012年第四季度才出现反弹。更糟的是,这次经济增速不仅没有重拾升势,反而在2013年第二季度再次下降,导致所有预测机构争相调低全年的预测增长数值。

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