谁在害怕巨额不良债务?

美国剑桥—一段时间以来,经济学家们被主流媒体上的一大争论吸引了大量注意力。争论的一方是卡门·莱因哈特和肯尼斯·罗格夫,另一方是保罗·克鲁格曼。是事实上,这次争论已经成为电视滑稽秀的素材。

问题来自罗格夫和莱因哈特2010年的一篇著名论文。这篇论文证明了公债水平高企与经济增长低落有关。麻州大学安姆赫斯特分校一名叫做托马斯·赫恩顿的研究生和他的两位教授迈克尔·阿什和罗伯特·波林发表了一篇论文质疑罗格夫和莱因哈特,而克鲁格曼让后一篇论文名声大噪。

赫恩顿、阿什和波林指出,莱因哈特和罗格夫的结果来自代码错误和有问题的方法选择。但是,尽管三人文字犀利,但他们的论文只是削弱而不能推翻莱/罗论文的主要结果。那么,为什么这会引起轩然大波?

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