Dean Rohrer

La opción libia en Irán

LOS NGELES – Este mes, los esfuerzos internacionales para evitar que Irán desarrolle armas nucleares recibirán nuevos bríos, ya que Francia ha asumido la presidencia del Consejo de Seguridad de las Naciones Unidas. Como presidente del Consejo, Francia, que comparte la visión de Estados Unidos acerca de la necesidad de fortalecer las sanciones contra el gobierno iraní, puede poner el tema sobre la mesa, algo que China evitó durante enero, cuando le tocó presidir el Consejo.

Sin embargo, incluso si una renovada iniciativa franco-estadounidense lograra hacer que el órgano de la ONU apoyara sanciones focalizadas para debilitar las bases financieras de la Guardia Revolucionaria y otras elites iraníes, las medidas propuestas parecen demasiado modestas. Poco añaden a tres resoluciones de sanciones anteriores que prohíben la exportación de tecnología nuclear, misiles balísticos y armas convencionales, y que congelan las cuentas y el desplazamiento de un puñado de funcionarios iraníes. Más aún, a pesar del sufrimiento que imponen, las sanciones económicas históricamente sirven poco para hacer que los países hagan cambios fundamentales a sus políticas.

Hay una excepción notable a este patrón: la decisión de Libia en diciembre de 2003 de abandonar su programa de armas nucleares. En radical giro del país con respecto a sus intentos - que llevaban ya casi un cuarto de siglo - por desarrollar la bomba marca una importante marcha atrás en cuanto a proliferación nuclear, y en eso las sanciones tuvieron un papel clave. La manera en que confluyeron con   otras formas de presión permite abrigar esperanzas de que lo mismo pueda ocurrir en el caso de Irá n.

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