Ливанская война год спустя

ЛОНДОН – Уже прошёл почти год с тех пор, как Европейский Союз решил оказать помощь в стабилизации Ливана после произошедшей прошлым летом войны. Приняв решение об отправке нескольких тысяч солдат в Ливан для претворения в жизнь резолюции 1701 Совета Безопасности ООН, ЕС предпринял самый смелый за последнее время шаг по созданию единой внешней политики и политики безопасности. Но вопрос остаётся открытым: сможет ли ЕС на самом деле стабилизировать самое разрозненное государство в самом подверженном конфликтам регионе из находящихся в непосредственной близости от Европы?

Война Израиля с «Хезболлой» в 2006 г. вновь напомнила ЕС о том, что его стратегические интересы не всегда полностью совпадают с интересами Соединённых Штатов. Поскольку администрация Буша заняла позицию «невмешательства» в войну Израиля с «Хезболлой» в южном Ливане, а США оказались в военной смирительной рубашке из-за войны в Ираке, ЕС пришлось взять на себя главную роль.

На ЕС (пока что) не пала тень ухудшающейся репутации Америки на Ближнем Востоке. Но репутация ЕС может ухудшиться, если он позволит, чтобы его действия в Ливане стали частью новой стратегии США по изоляции Ирана с помощью упрочения сегодняшних региональных разделений между суннитами и шиитами. Чтобы избежать этого, действия ЕС в Ливане необходимо дополнить детальной политической стратегией, целью которой будет не допустить изоляции долгие годы подавляемого на протяжении длительного времени шиитского населения Ливана.

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