La guerre au Liban un an plus tard

LONDRES – Cela fait bientôt un an que l’Union européenne s’est engagée à stabiliser le Liban, après la guerre de l’été dernier. En prenant la décision d’envoyer une force d’interposition au Liban pour appliquer la résolution 1701 du Conseil de sécurité des Nations unies, l’UE a franchi l’étape la plus audacieuse à ce jour dans la création d’une politique étrangère et de sécurité commune. La question se pose toutefois de savoir si l’Union sera capable de stabiliser l’entité politique la plus divisée d’une région victime de conflits potentiellement dangereux, dans le voisinage immédiat de l’Europe.

La guerre entre Israël et le Hezbollah en 2006 a rappelé à l’UE, qu’une fois de plus, ses intérêts stratégiques ne coïncidaient pas nécessairement avec ceux des Etats-Unis. Parce que l’administration Bush a choisi de se distancer du conflit au Liban sud et que les Etats-Unis ont des ressources militaires limitées en raison de la guerre en Irak, l’UE a bien été obligée de prendre la situation en main.

L’Union européenne n’est pas – pour l’instant - trop contaminée par la désintégration de la réputation des États-Unis au Moyen-Orient. Mais elle pourrait compromettre son mandat si elle permettait que son engagement au Liban devienne une partie intégrante de la nouvelle stratégie d’isolation de l’Iran par les Etats-Unis, en intensifiant les antagonismes régionaux entre chiites et sunnites. Pour éviter d’être prise dans cet engrenage, l’Union européenne devra accompagner sa présence au Liban d’une stratégie politique subtile qui n’isole pas la population chiite du pays, réprimée depuis longtemps.

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