Ливанский лабиринт

Ливан готов к проведению президентских выборов, которые не могут себе позволить проиграть как ни одна из соперничающих группировок, так и ни одна из конкурирующих партий в регионе.

Начнем с Сирии. В 2005 году режим президента Башара Ассада был вынужден вывести свои войска из Ливана после убийства бывшего ливанского премьер-министра Рафика Харири. Многие считают, что за совершение этого убийства ответственна именно Сирия, и последовавшее давление, как внутри Ливана, так и со стороны международного сообщества, способствовали выводу сирийских войск. Однако, вскоре после этих событий Ассад заявил, что ничто не сможет разрушить отношения между Сирией и Ливаном.

Ассад прекрасно понимает, что в случае избрания президента в Ливане, который будет поддерживать независимость страны, возвращение Сирии будет значительно затруднено – Ассад, как это в тайне подтверждают даже его союзники, не согласится на меньшее. Именно он принял решение в нарушение конституции продлить срок надежного про-сирийского президента Эмиля Лахуда в 2004 году, что вызвало политический кризис, приведший к убийству Харири и появлению в стране анти-сирийский объединений, в состав которых вошли многие бывшие сторонники Сирии.

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