Das libanesische Labyrinth

Im Libanon stehen Präsidentenwahlen an und keine der konkurrierenden Parteien – und vor allem keine der rivalisierenden Gruppierungen in der Region – kann es sich leisten, zu verlieren.

Beginnen wir mit Syrien. Nach der Ermordung des ehemaligen libanesischen Ministerpräsidenten Rafik Hariri im Jahr 2005 war das Regime unter Präsident Bashar Assad gezwungen, seine Truppen aus dem Libanon abzuziehen. Weithin wird angenommen, dass Syrien für die Ermordung Hariris verantwortlich ist. Druck aus dem Libanon sowie von internationaler Ebene trug dazu bei, den syrischen Truppenabzug zu forcieren. Allerdings wies Assad kurz danach in einer Rede darauf hin, dass es unmöglich sei, das Band zwischen Syrien und dem Libanon aufzulösen.

Assad weiß, dass die Wahl eines Präsidenten, der die Souveränität und Unabhängigkeit des Libanon stärkt, eine Rückkehr der Syrer erschweren würde – und genau das will Assad nicht, wie auch seine Verbündeten in privaten Gesprächen zugeben. Assads verfassungswidrige Entscheidung im Jahr 2004, die Amtszeit des absolut prosyrischen libanesischen Präsidenten Emile Lahoud zu verlängern, löste jene politische Krise aus, die zur Ermordung Hariris sowie zur Bildung eines antisyrischen Lagers im Libanon führte, dem auch ehemalige syrische Verbündete angehörten.

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