Libanonský labyrint

Libanon již brzy uspořádá prezidentské volby, které si žádná ze soupeřících frakcí – a vlastně ani žádná ze znesvářených stran v regionu – nemůže dovolit prohrát.

Začněme u Sýrie. V roce 2005 byl režim Bašára Asada po atentátu na někdejšího libanonského premiéra Rafíka Harírího donucen stáhnout z Libanonu svou armádu. Zodpovědnost za atentát se všeobecně připisuje Sýrii a domácí libanonský i mezinárodní tlak k syrskému stažení napomohly. Přesto Asad krátce poté v projevu varoval, že nic nemůže zpřetrhat syrsko-libanonské vztahy.

Asad ví, že zvolení prezidenta podporujícího suverenitu a nezávislost Libanonu by ztížilo návrat Sýrie – a to si Asad přeje ze všeho nejméně, jak v soukromí připouštějí i jeho spojenci. Koneckonců bylo jeho rozhodnutím prodloužit v roce 2004 v rozporu s ústavou funkční období spolehlivě prosyrského libanonského prezidenta Emile Lahúda, což rozpoutalo politickou krizi vedoucí až k Harírího zavraždění a zrodu koalice protisyrských skupin, která čítala i mnoho někdejších syrských spojenců.

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