المتاهة اللبنانية

في هذه اللحظة تستعد لبنان لعقد انتخابات رئاسية جديدة. وهي الانتخابات التي لا تستطيع الطوائف المتنافسة ـ بل ولا الأحزاب المتبارية في المنطقة ـ أن تتحمل خسارتها.

ولنبدأ بسوريا. في العام 2005 اضطر نظام الرئيس بشار الأسد إلى الانسحاب بجيشه من لبنان، في أعقاب اغتيال رئيس الوزراء اللبناني السابق رفيق الحريري . ومن المعتقد على نطاق واسع أن سوريا كانت مسئولة عن هذه الجريمة، ولقد ساعدت الضغوط من داخل لبنان وعلى المستوى الدولي في إجبار سوريا على الانسحاب. إلا أن الرئيس الأسد أكّد في خطاب ألقاه في أعقاب تلك الحادثة مباشرة أن لا شيء على الإطلاق قادر على تمزيق العلاقات الوثيقة بين سوريا ولبنان.

الحقيقة أن الأسد يدرك تمام الإدراك أن انتخاب رئيس يدعم سيادة لبنان واستقلالها من شأنه أن يجعل عودة سوريا في غاية الصعوبة ـ و الأسد ، كما اعترف حلفاؤه في مناسبات شخصية، لا يطمح إلى ما هو أقل من عودة سوريا إلى لبنان. والحقيقة أن قراره بتمديد ولاية الرئيس اللبناني المناصر لسوريا إميل لـحّود في العام 2004 كان بمثابة الشرارة التي أشعلت الأزمة السياسية التي أدت إلى مقتل الحريري وتأسيس تحالف بين الجماعات المناهضة لسوريا، والذي تضمن العديد من حلفاء سوريا السابقين.

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